Despite widespread concerns about increasing violent crime in the U.S., the latest FBI report shows a significant decrease in violent offenses in 2023. Released on Monday, the data reveals that violent crime, including murder, rape, robbery, and aggravated assault, fell by 3% from 2022 to 2023. This report counters the perception of a crime surge, an issue often highlighted in political debates, especially ahead of elections.
One of the most notable findings is that the murder rate saw the largest drop in 20 years, decreasing by 12%. Other significant declines include a 9% drop in rape cases, a 0.3% reduction in robbery, and a 3% decrease in aggravated assaults. The overall violent crime rate for 2023 stood at 363.8 per 100,000 people, down from 377.1 in 2022. This continues a trend of declining violent crime rates since 2020.
However, while violent crime has decreased, non-violent crimes such as motor vehicle theft have risen, with a 13% increase in 2023.
Data Collection Challenges and Criticisms
The FBI report is based on voluntary submissions from police departments across the country. Although participation in the FBI’s crime data collection system has improved to 85% of law enforcement agencies in 2023, some cities, particularly smaller or resource-constrained ones, have not consistently submitted data. In previous years, major cities like New York and Los Angeles did not contribute full data, leading some to question the accuracy of the figures. Former President Donald Trump has criticized the FBI’s data collection methods, citing incomplete submissions from some of the most violent cities.
Nonetheless, by 2023, all major city agencies serving populations of one million or more submitted a full year’s worth of data, according to the FBI.
Other Measures of Violent Crime
In addition to the FBI’s data, the National Crime Victimization Survey provides another measure of violent crime by asking people whether they have been victims of crime, regardless of whether they reported the incidents to the police. The survey shows a 40% increase in violent crime between 2020 and 2023, a figure frequently cited by Trump as evidence of rising crime. However, experts like Professor Daniel Flannery argue that this comparison cherry-picks data by focusing on a year (2020) when violent crime rates were abnormally low due to the COVID-19 pandemic. When compared to pre-pandemic years, the rise is less pronounced.
Long-Term Trends Show Declining Crime Rates
Looking at the broader picture, both FBI data and the victims’ survey indicate that violent crime has significantly decreased over the last three decades. FBI data shows a 49% reduction in violent crime since 1993, while the Bureau of Justice Statistics’ survey highlights a 71% drop in victim-reported violent crime over the same period.
Experts attribute the long-term decline to several factors, including improved understanding of the causes of violent crime, targeted policing strategies, demographic shifts, and environmental changes such as better streetlighting, which deters crimes like robbery and auto theft. These insights suggest that while recent years have seen fluctuations, the overall trend points to a safer society than in previous decades.